New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: Betting Trends, Oct 4, 2026 (NFL)
The New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills on October 4, 2026. Drake Maye has cleared 150+ passing yards in 19 of the last 20 games (95%), the highest rate on either side. Every figure on this page is a count of settled games or a line a book posted. DataStreak does not produce picks. Updated September 27, 2026.
The posted line
At fanduel as of September 27, 2026: BUF -5.5, total 50.5. A line is the number a book posted at that moment, shown as a fact about the market; it is not a forecast and it moves.
Previous meetings
Finished regular-season games between the two, this season and last, newest first.
| Date | Away | Home |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | BUF 35 | NE 31 |
| 2025-10-05 | NE 23 | BUF 20 |
New England Patriots: last 5 games
| Date | Opp | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | vs PIT | W 20-3 |
| 2026-09-09 | @ SEA | L 10-13 |
| 2026-01-04 | vs MIA | W 38-10 |
| 2025-12-28 | @ NYJ | W 42-10 |
| 2025-12-21 | @ BAL | W 28-24 |
Buffalo Bills: last 5 games
| Date | Opp | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | vs DET | W 41-31 |
| 2026-09-13 | @ HOU | W 36-31 |
| 2026-01-04 | vs NYJ | W 35-8 |
| 2025-12-28 | vs PHI | L 12-13 |
| 2025-12-21 | @ CLE | W 23-20 |
Over each player's last 20 games, the highest clear rate at the lowest posted rung of each market. Counts of games, not projections; each name opens the player's own page.
NE players clearing their prop lines most often
| Player | Market | Line | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | Passing Yards | 150+ passing yards | 19 of 20 | 95% |
| Romeo Doubs | Receiving Yards | 20+ receiving yards | 17 of 20 | 85% |
| Romeo Doubs | Receptions | 2+ receptions | 17 of 20 | 85% |
BUF players clearing their prop lines most often
| Player | Market | Line | Cleared | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook III | Rushing Yards | 20+ rushing yards | 19 of 20 | 95% |
| Dalton Kincaid | Receiving Yards | 20+ receiving yards | 18 of 20 | 90% |
| Josh Allen | Rushing Yards | 20+ rushing yards | 17 of 20 | 85% |
Questions about New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
How have the last meetings between the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills gone?
Of the last 2 regular-season meetings this season and last, the Buffalo Bills won 1 and the New England Patriots won 1. The most recent was BUF 35, NE 31 on December 14, 2025.
Which players in New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills clear their prop lines most often?
Drake Maye has cleared 150+ passing yards in 19 of his last 20 games (95%); James Cook III has cleared 20+ rushing yards in 19 of his last 20 games (95%), over each player's last 20 games at the lowest posted rung. Counts of games, not projections.
Are these NE at BUF numbers picks?
No. Every figure is a count of settled games or a line a book posted, shown with the games it comes from so the arithmetic is checkable. DataStreak does not produce picks. Updated September 27, 2026.
How these numbers are measured
A cover is a settled game where the final margin beat the closing spread; a push is a margin that landed on it. Previous meetings are finished regular-season games between the two teams. The prop rates count the games in which a player's stat reached the line over that player's last 20 games. A posted line is one book's number on one day. Nothing here is a projection.
Every NFL prop graded on this date: NFL player props, October 4, 2026. Both teams' full pages: New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills. The live board with every team and tonight's lines is the NFL ATS Radar. Every NFL player at a glance: NFL player prop hit rates, or read how the boards are built.