Brian Thomas Jr. Prop Hit Rates (NFL)
Brian Thomas Jr. has cleared 20+ receiving yards in 15 of his last 20 games (75%). Every figure on this page is a count of graded games over his last 20, shown beside the games it comes from. DataStreak does not produce picks. Updated October 17, 2026.
Brian Thomas Jr. Receiving Yards: how often each line was cleared
| 20+ receiving yards | 40+ receiving yards | 60+ receiving yards | 80+ receiving yards | 100+ receiving yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75% 15 of 20 | 55% 11 of 20 | 20% 4 of 20 | 15% 3 of 20 | 0% 0 of 20 |
Against the closing line the books posted, Brian Thomas Jr. cleared the receiving yards line in 2 of 5 games with a line (40%); pushes are left out. Each game's line is under its value in the games table.
Brian Thomas Jr. Receptions: how often each line was cleared
| 2+ receptions | 4+ receptions | 6+ receptions | 8+ receptions | 10+ receptions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% 17 of 20 | 30% 6 of 20 | 5% 1 of 20 | 5% 1 of 20 | 0% 0 of 20 |
Against the closing line the books posted, Brian Thomas Jr. cleared the receptions line in 2 of 5 games with a line (40%); pushes are left out. Each game's line is under its value in the games table.
Last 20 games
Under a value, the line is the closing main line the books had posted for that game, where the capture has one.
| Date | Opp | Receiving Yards | Receptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | vs PHI | 0 line 24.5 | 0 line 2.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | @ CIN | 17 line 26.5 | 2 line 2.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | vs NE | 8 line 32.5 | 1 line 2.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | @ DEN | 40 line 32.5 | 3 line 2.5 |
| 2026-09-13 | vs CLE | 40 line 38.5 | 3 line 2.5 |
| 2026-01-11 | vs BUF | 21 | 2 |
| 2026-01-04 | vs TEN | 49 | 3 |
| 2025-12-28 | @ IND | 39 | 4 |
| 2025-12-21 | @ DEN | 18 | 2 |
| 2025-12-14 | vs NYJ | 66 | 4 |
| 2025-12-07 | vs IND | 87 | 3 |
| 2025-11-30 | @ TEN | 28 | 2 |
| 2025-11-02 | @ LV | 55 | 3 |
| 2025-10-19 | vs LAR | 31 | 3 |
| 2025-10-12 | vs SEA | 90 | 8 |
| 2025-10-06 | vs KC | 80 | 4 |
| 2025-09-28 | @ SF | 49 | 5 |
| 2025-09-21 | vs HOU | 55 | 2 |
| 2025-09-14 | @ CIN | 49 | 4 |
| 2025-09-07 | vs CAR | 11 | 1 |
Questions about Brian Thomas Jr.'s prop hit rates
How often has Brian Thomas Jr. cleared 20+ receiving yards?
Brian Thomas Jr. has cleared 20+ receiving yards in 15 of his last 20 NFL games (75%), counted from the graded game logs listed on this page. At 40+ receiving yards it is 11 of 20 (55%). Updated October 17, 2026.
How often has Brian Thomas Jr. cleared his closing receiving yards line?
In 2 of 5 recent games with a posted receiving yards line (40%), the line being the main number the books had up at close for that game; pushes are left out. A count of past games at the lines that were posted, not a prediction of the next one.
How often has Brian Thomas Jr. cleared 2+ receptions?
Brian Thomas Jr. has cleared 2+ receptions in 17 of his last 20 NFL games (85%), counted from the graded game logs listed on this page. At 4+ receptions it is 6 of 20 (30%). Updated October 17, 2026.
How often has Brian Thomas Jr. cleared his closing receptions line?
In 2 of 5 recent games with a posted receptions line (40%), the line being the main number the books had up at close for that game; pushes are left out. A count of past games at the lines that were posted, not a prediction of the next one.
Are Brian Thomas Jr.'s hit rates picks?
No. Each figure is a count of graded games divided by the games in the sample, shown beside it so the arithmetic is checkable. DataStreak does not produce picks; the page reports what has happened over a stated window.
How are Brian Thomas Jr.'s prop hit rates measured?
From his graded game logs over his last 20 games. A line is cleared in a game when the stat reaches that number. Posted sportsbook lines are not used in the computation, and a player needs at least 10 games in the sample for a rate to be published.
How these rates are measured
A player clears a line in a game when the stat reaches that number, so "1+ hits" counts every game with one or more hits. The percentage is that count divided by the games with a value for the stat, listed in the table above so the arithmetic is checkable. Posted sportsbook lines are not used to compute the ladder. Where a closing line is shown, it is the main line the books had posted at close for that game (the rung priced closest to even at each book, the most common one across books), and the count against it leaves out games that landed on the line.
For tonight's posted lines and the live, filterable board, see NFL Hit Rate Sheets; for the full profile, charts and matchup tools, open Brian Thomas Jr. in the app. JAX betting trends and prop hit rates. Every NFL player at a glance: NFL player prop hit rates, or read how the boards are built.