Patrick Mahomes Prop Hit Rates (NFL)
Patrick Mahomes has cleared 20+ rushing yards in 9 of his last 20 games (45%). Every figure on this page is a count of graded games over his last 20, shown beside the games it comes from. DataStreak does not produce picks. Updated November 1, 2026.
Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards: how often each line was cleared
| 20+ rushing yards | 40+ rushing yards | 60+ rushing yards | 80+ rushing yards | 100+ rushing yards | 120+ rushing yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45% 9 of 20 | 15% 3 of 20 | 10% 2 of 20 | 0% 0 of 20 | 0% 0 of 20 | 0% 0 of 20 |
Against the closing line the books posted, Patrick Mahomes cleared the rushing yards line in 2 of 7 games with a line (28.6%); pushes are left out. Each game's line is under its value in the games table.
Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards: how often each line was cleared
| 150+ passing yards | 200+ passing yards | 250+ passing yards | 300+ passing yards | 350+ passing yards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% 20 of 20 | 75% 15 of 20 | 60% 12 of 20 | 20% 4 of 20 | 10% 2 of 20 |
Against the closing line the books posted, Patrick Mahomes cleared the passing yards line in 4 of 7 games with a line (57.1%); pushes are left out. Each game's line is under its value in the games table.
Last 20 games
Under a value, the line is the closing main line the books had posted for that game, where the capture has one.
| Date | Opp | Rushing Yards | Passing Yards |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | @ DEN | 6 line 13.5 | 321 line 222.5 |
| 2026-10-25 | @ SEA | 14 line 17.5 | 165 line 220.5 |
| 2026-10-18 | vs LAC | 16 line 14.5 | 272 line 224.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | @ LV | 0 line 15.5 | 225 line 238.5 |
| 2026-09-27 | @ MIA | 1 line 15.5 | 246 line 235.5 |
| 2026-09-20 | vs IND | 17 line 17.5 | 382 line 220.5 |
| 2026-09-14 | vs DEN | 23 line 14.5 | 184 line 224.5 |
| 2025-12-14 | vs LAC | 15 | 189 |
| 2025-12-07 | vs HOU | 59 | 160 |
| 2025-11-27 | @ DAL | 30 | 261 |
| 2025-11-23 | vs IND | 30 | 352 |
| 2025-11-16 | @ DEN | 3 | 276 |
| 2025-11-02 | @ BUF | 5 | 250 |
| 2025-10-27 | vs WSH | 30 | 299 |
| 2025-10-19 | vs LV | 28 | 286 |
| 2025-10-12 | vs DET | 32 | 257 |
| 2025-10-06 | @ JAX | 60 | 318 |
| 2025-09-28 | vs BAL | 5 | 270 |
| 2025-09-21 | @ NYG | 2 | 224 |
| 2025-09-14 | vs PHI | 66 | 187 |
Questions about Patrick Mahomes's prop hit rates
How often has Patrick Mahomes cleared 20+ rushing yards?
Patrick Mahomes has cleared 20+ rushing yards in 9 of his last 20 NFL games (45%), counted from the graded game logs listed on this page. At 40+ rushing yards it is 3 of 20 (15%). Updated November 1, 2026.
How often has Patrick Mahomes cleared his closing rushing yards line?
In 2 of 7 recent games with a posted rushing yards line (28.6%), the line being the main number the books had up at close for that game; pushes are left out. A count of past games at the lines that were posted, not a prediction of the next one.
How often has Patrick Mahomes cleared 150+ passing yards?
Patrick Mahomes has cleared 150+ passing yards in 20 of his last 20 NFL games (100%), counted from the graded game logs listed on this page. At 200+ passing yards it is 15 of 20 (75%). Updated November 1, 2026.
How often has Patrick Mahomes cleared his closing passing yards line?
In 4 of 7 recent games with a posted passing yards line (57.1%), the line being the main number the books had up at close for that game; pushes are left out. A count of past games at the lines that were posted, not a prediction of the next one.
Are Patrick Mahomes's hit rates picks?
No. Each figure is a count of graded games divided by the games in the sample, shown beside it so the arithmetic is checkable. DataStreak does not produce picks; the page reports what has happened over a stated window.
How are Patrick Mahomes's prop hit rates measured?
From his graded game logs over his last 20 games. A line is cleared in a game when the stat reaches that number. Posted sportsbook lines are not used in the computation, and a player needs at least 10 games in the sample for a rate to be published.
How these rates are measured
A player clears a line in a game when the stat reaches that number, so "1+ hits" counts every game with one or more hits. The percentage is that count divided by the games with a value for the stat, listed in the table above so the arithmetic is checkable. Posted sportsbook lines are not used to compute the ladder. Where a closing line is shown, it is the main line the books had posted at close for that game (the rung priced closest to even at each book, the most common one across books), and the count against it leaves out games that landed on the line.
For tonight's posted lines and the live, filterable board, see NFL Hit Rate Sheets; for the full profile, charts and matchup tools, open Patrick Mahomes in the app. KC betting trends and prop hit rates. Every NFL player at a glance: NFL player prop hit rates, or read how the boards are built.