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Miami Dolphins 2026 Win Total 3.5: Over or Under?

August 16, 2026 · NFL · 3:57

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Three and a half wins is already one of the lowest totals on the board. The Dolphins still go under it.

Malik Willis was the big offseason signing. He got a pretty big contract, and he has shown flashes. The problem is the rest of the roster. Tua's contract situation has hamstrung the team. The offensive line is terrible. Devon Achane is a good running back, but the receiving corps Tutu Atwell, Jaylen Tolbert is nothing to write home about.

On defense, the unit as a whole is not great. This is a rough roster from top to bottom.

The schedule breakdown landed at one win. Maybe two if the Raiders game flips. That is it. The Jets at home is the only game I feel comfortable calling a win. Every other matchup is a loss on paper. Under 3.5 at +120 is the value side.

What This Video Covers:
Malik Willis signing and what it means at quarterback
Tua's contract situation and roster limitations
Devon Achane, Tutu Atwell, and the offensive weapons
Chop Robinson and the defensive outlook
Full 17-game schedule breakdown โ€” only 1-2 projected wins
Why under 3.5 at +120 is the pick

This is Part 19 of my 32-team NFL Win Total series.

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Video description as published on the DataStreak YouTube channel. DataStreak is an analytics platform and does not produce picks; the boards in the video are the ones the site publishes every morning. 21+.

Transcript

Show the transcript

Today we got the Miami Dolphins if they're going to go over or under three and a half wins, which is what their Vegas total is at this year. We're just going to jump right into it and go over their off season moves. Malik Willis Malik Willis as their biggest off season move. They gave him pretty big contract. I was surprised at that. They're still dealing with paying Tua. So, quarterback's been a huge problem and it's affected their whole roster. I got Tudu Atwell. Not a crazy uh crazy off season for them. They got Quinn Ewers last year throwing in. All right, Malik Willis, we'll see what to expect from him.

Gave him the bag. Um Devon Achane, good running back. I do like him, but they have a a very bad They have a terrible offensive line. So, that's a concern. Leak Washington, Jaylen Tolbert, Tudu Atwell. I mean, this offense overall isn't anything to write home about. Then we look at the defensive side of the ball. No, Channing Robinson. I mean, I've Really, it's just not a great defense either. This is just This is a This is a rough roster. We're just going to go ahead and look at their uh regular season schedule. Uh so, week one they're at Raiders. I'm I'm going to call this a loss. I think the Raiders have a better team.

They have more weapons. Uh we're going to We're just going to give them a loss there. 49ers, that's going to be a loss. Chiefs, loss. Vikings, loss. Bengals, at Cincinnati, that'll be a loss if Joe Burrow's healthy. And even without him, I mean, they have Joe Flacco back again. Joe Flacco could end up filling in and doing what he did last year and getting by. And after the bye, they've got the Jets. We'll say they get a win. Their first win versus the Jets. Patriots, loss. Lions, loss. Colts, it's at Indianapolis. Mhm, we're going to call that a loss, too. At Buffalo, loss. At New England, loss.

At Denver, loss. At Bears, loss. At At Packers, loss. I mean, this is This is This This hard getting wins with the schedule and when you just look at each game at Lions, loss. And at New England, loss. And at Buffalo, I'm going to call that a loss. I only have them winning one game. Maybe two. I mean, I could see the Raiders game going either way, but when we look at their Vegas win total, we'll go over to DraftKings. Yeah, I mean, it's at three and a half wins, four wins. I mean, I like the under at plus odds. At plus 120, under three and a half. Honestly, I could see them going over only if they run into teams with quarterback injuries, which it's the NFL.

Anything can happen where, you know, they're playing a team and they are just beat up. But, with all the teams playing, assuming everybody's healthy, on both sides of the ball, even, I I like the under three and a half for the Dolphins this year. Now, we could see Malik Willis come out and look much better than we thought he did. Uh he He's shown flashes, he has, but I just I can't I can't pick the over on them with with their roster right now. Uh unless Malik Willis really comes out looking looking solid. Let me know in the comments if you agree or disagree, cuz I'm going under. I'm going under three and a half wins.

And uh yeah, let me know what you guys think. And if you enjoyed this video and watched this point, just want to thank you. If you could tap the like button, it does help out a lot. And subscribe, that way you don't miss any other videos. And the way I do all my sports betting research is through Data Streak. Link is down in the description if you want to check it out. And I'll see you in the next video.

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