New England Patriots 2026 Win Total 10.5: Over or Under?
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The big question mark is the offensive line. Will Campbell was drafted to play tackle, but his natural position is guard. He struggled at tackle last year and is coming off an injury. That unit needs to hold up for this offense to hit its ceiling.
Christian Gonzalez is one of the top corners in the league. Kevin Byard adds depth to a secondary that is already good. The defense can keep them in games.
The schedule breakdown landed at 10 wins. The Chiefs, Chargers, Vikings, Bears, Bills, and Broncos are all projected losses on the road. At home, they handle the Steelers, Raiders, Jets, Packers, Lions, Bills, Jets again, and Dolphins.
Under 10.5.What This Video Covers:
Drake Maye and why he is one of the best QBs to bet on
AJ Brown acquisition and what it means for the offense
Rhamondre Stevenson, Romeo Doubs, and the skill position depth
Will Campbell, the offensive line, and the biggest concern
Christian Gonzalez and the defensive outlook
Full 17-game schedule breakdown - 10 projected wins
Why under 10.5 is the pick
This is Part 21 of my 32-team NFL Win Total series.
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Video description as published on the DataStreak YouTube channel. DataStreak is an analytics platform and does not produce picks; the boards in the video are the ones the site publishes every morning. 21+.
Transcript
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Today we got the New England Patriots coming off a Super Bowl appearance. Didn't go as planned for them. But we're going to go in this video over if they're going to go over or under their season win total. Vegas has them set at 10 and 1/2. It's a lot of wins to get to, but we're going to go jump right into it and go over their biggest wins and losses of the off-season. Overall, the biggest thing really that we'll touch on is getting AJ Brown for sure. Definitely is going to help out. Caleb Lemue Lemue how to I cannot pronounce his name. I'm sorry. Rookie I'm going to have to see him a little little longer unless he's doing it pronounced cuz I do not know how to pronounce it.
But it was interesting going a tackle cuz Will Campbell last year struggled. And the thing people talk up have not talked about was Will Campbell is naturally a guard. They were playing him at tackle. Uh there was concerns about how long his arms were, his arm length. I think they're going to I don't I have not looked at Campbell to be honest, but I think they'll move him into guard and start uh Caleb the rookie at tackle. Could be wrong, but that's what I think is going to happen. Of course, you have the Mike Vrabel Diana Rossini drama in the off-season. So that brings a little bit of extra drama to this off-season.
But overall, main thing is, you know, the interesting draft move just shows that Will Campbell really struggled. However, Will Campbell was injured most of the second half of the year. So people don't talk about that either. Will Campbell still has a chance to be a good offensive lineman in this league. Just his rookie year did not go as most would have hoped. Now let's look at their depth chart. So quarterback we got Drake May. He is one of my probably my favorite quarterback to bet on. He hits 200 yards passing. I don't know off the top of my head, but I want to say only like two games he didn't hit 200 yards.
And the way I do all my betting research is through Data Streak. Link's in the description if you want to check it out after this video. That's how I find the most consistent players to bet on and Drake May was jumping off the board all last year and I think he's going to have an even better season this year. I mean, he's just going to progress every year. I think Drake May is is a stud. Then we have Rhamondre Stevenson and Trayveon Henderson. Love the one-two punch. Trayveon Henderson didn't have the greatest rookie year, but I think he's going to make strides in year two for sure. Again, bringing in AJ Brown.
Problem I could see here is chemistry issues in the locker room with AJ Brown, but hopefully they can keep him in check. It is New England. Bill Belichick wouldn't have put up with it and hopefully we have that same culture coming in, but with the Mike Vrabel off-season hopefully he doesn't lose respect from his players and lose the locker room. Uh Romeo Doubs Kayshon Boutte decent receivers Hunter Henry uh decent there. It's going to be interesting to see this offensive line. Will Campbell still listed at left tackle. They might move him around. We'll see. If you've been more, if you're a Patriots fan and have been watching, you know, training camp or paying close attention, let me know where he's going to be.
But overall, I just look at the total offensive line unit as a whole. You know, I think they'll improve, especially like I mentioned with Will Campbell being injured last year and playing through it. Defensive side of the ball, you know, key player that stands out is of course Christian Gonzalez, one of the top cornerbacks in the league. Kevin Byard They've got a good secondary. They've got a decent defense, but the the main thing with them is just how consistent their offense is uh with Drake May. So, I think they're going to be I think they're going to be solid this year, but let's take a look at their schedule and see can they get to 11 wins?
So, week one we got the Super Bowl rematch and they're at Seahawks. That's going to be a loss. I checked the spread. Was it like minus three and a half Seahawks? That spread was thinner than I thought. I really do think the Seahawks are going to handle week one easy. So, that's going to be a loss. Uh Steelers win. Jaguars at Jaguars. I think the Jags are going to be tough. This could go either way. We're going to call that a win though. At Bills. We're going to call this one a loss. Then Raiders. We're going to call that a win. Jets win. Bears at Bears. We're going to call that a loss. I think the Bears are going to be good this year.
At Dolphins win. First the Packers. That's going to be We'll call that a win. First the Lions. We'll give them a win there as well, even though that could go either way for sure. At Chargers. That one could be tough. We're going to call that a loss. Depends on that Chargers offensive line. But we're going to call that a loss. We have the Bills at home. I think they'll split those. We'll give them a win there. Eight at Minnesota. Be interesting to see how Minnesota plays this year with Kyler Murray. But we'll call that We'll call that a Hmm, could go either way. It's an away game. We're going to call that a loss.
We're going to call Chiefs at Chiefs. Call that a loss. Assuming Patrick Mahomes is healthy coming off that ACL is a concern. Jets win. Broncos. I'm going to call that a loss. And then finishing off with the Dolphins. That'll be a win. Gets us to 10. Let's look at their Vegas total. Vegas total is at 10 and a half wins. I'm taking the under. It's minus 140. Don't love those odds. If you can tease it up to 11 and a half wins, I like that better to under 11 and a half wins. But I think the Patriots just the off season distractions. I do think they're going to be good, but they've got a tough schedule this year.
They do not have an easy schedule. I mean, I I hate to say it, but some of those wins that I listed as wins could end up being losses as well. So, be interesting what what to see from them. They had a really easy schedule last year. So, they had an easier route through the regular season and the playoffs. So, I'm going under on the Patriots. Let me know if you agree or disagree down in the comment section below. Of course, a link for Data Streak, if you want to check it out, is down there as well. If you watch this point, I just want to thank you for the support. And if you wouldn't mind tapping that like button, I really would appreciate it and subscribing.
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